CPI Consumer Price Index - September 2025 - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

• CPI grew 0.3% MoM v 0.4% estimated, and lower than the 0.4% increase in August.
• CPI grew 3.0% YoY v 3.1% estimated, and higher than the 2.9% increase in August
• Core CPI grew 0.2% MoM v 0.3% estimated and lower than 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI grew 3.0% YoY v 3.1% estimated and lower than 3.1% in August.

(Core CPI strips out food and energy prices to smoothen seasonality)

While it shows slightly lower inflation it is far above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Still the CME FedWatch tool suggests that the Fed will cut for sure next week and very likely (98%) another 25 basis points in December, framed as an insurance cut, against a weakening labor market.

In the headline CPI number, gasoline contributed the most, and the shelter index continued to retreat:

• The Gasoline Index rose 4.1%
• The Energy Index rose 1.5%
• The food index rose 0.2% M/M, with food at home increasing 0.3% and food away from home up 0.1%.
• Shelter rose a modest 0.135% M/M, even lower than the 0.2% rise in the preceding 3 months

In core CPI, shelter, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and apparel all rose during the month, while indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and communication declined, the BLS said.

The auto insurance index moderated in September (-0.4%)

Given the shutdown we’re not likely to see an October inflation report.