The NASDAQ COMP, which fell over 2% as short sellers picked on AI heavyweights like Palantir and Nvidia saw some relief from job gains.
This Jobs report is for Sep 2025 - a delayed report because of the government shutdown.
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics: U.S. non-farm payrolls jumped a surprising 119,000 in September, easily doubling the 50,000 estimate, and reversing a 4,000 dip in August (revised from a positive 22,000), according to delayed data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The data is a month old, diminishing its relevance but still the markets love it. S&P Futures which were up 1.25% after Nvidia’s earnings are up 1.75%, now and the Nasdaq composite futures are up even higher at 2.25% More participants entered the labor force, as a result the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% in August in vs. 4.3% consensus and 4.3% prior, even as net payrolls grew. Overall, the stronger month looks good, but is still around the baseline shown in April, still its not sliding.
Who's hiring? The usual suspects that have been throughout the year — health care - 43,000 jobs, food services - 37,000 jobs, and social assistance - 14,000 jobs.
Who's firing? The transportation and warehousing industries - 25,000 jobs and the federal government - 3,000 jobs.
Revisions - A total of 33,000 for the past two months - 7,000 lower for July and 26,000 for August.
Participation rates higher - Labor force participation increased slightly to 62.4% from 62.3% in August, with the the civilian labor force increasing to 171.2M from 170.8M in August.
AHE - Average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% M/M to $36.67 in September, less than the 0.3% consensus and slower than the 0.3% increase in August. In the past 12 months, AHE rose 3.8%, exceeding the 3.7% consensus, and the +3.75 YoY increase in the previous month. Wage inflation seems to be tame.
The report, even as its a month old, still resonates with November’s jobless claims, which were steady in the 232,000 range. The labor market remains healthy, with little room for the Fed to cut rates. The average workweek of 34.2 hours was unchanged from the prior month.
A good report, even if delayed, coupled with Nvidia's blockbuster earnings has lifted the pall of gloom off the markets. I suspect it should stay robust as Mike Wilson suggests.
